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If the first trading day (1/02) is any indication, 2008 could be a wild year for the markets. Stocks fell sharply after a key manufacturing report was surprisingly weak, and oil prices touched USD100 a barrel, though there was only one Nymex trade at that price. Gold prices traded at 28-year highs of more than USD860 per troy oz. For the first week of 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 6.3%.
紐約期油創每桶一百元歷史新高
紐約期金連創新高
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內地股市
Asian stocks fell across the board Friday (6/27), after Wall Street tumbled overnight on a confluence of a weaker dollar, surging oil prices and a plunge in banking stocks. Shares in China posted sharp declines. The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 5.3% at 2748.43, its lowest closing level since Feb. 9 last year, when it settled at 2730.39. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 6.0% to 795.86. Analysts said rising crude oil prices will prompt China's government to further increase domestic gasoline and electricity fees, increasing the costs of Chinese companies. Shanghai Composite Index rallied 5.3% to 2,898.10 Friday (6/20) as investors digested the government's move to raise retail prices for gasoline and diesel in response to high crude-oil prices and criticisms of its domestic fuel-subsidy program. China's fuel-price adjustment, announced after the close of trading Thursday, saw gasoline prices rise 17% and diesel prices rise 18% beginning Friday. The move was the first fuel-price hike since a 10% increase in November. The move will also raise Chinese electricity prices 4.7% beginning July 1. Shanghai Composite Index (6/19) plunged 6.5% to 2748.87 as profit-taking prompted a selloff by jittery investors. The index rose 5.2% a day earlier. The Shenzhen Composite Index tumbled 7.4% to 780.56. Shanghai Composite registered its ninth decline in 10 sessions, finishing 2.8% lower at 2,794.75 (6/17), a level it hasn't seen since early March, according to FactSet data. As of the day's close, the benchmark index has lost nearly 47% in 2008, weighed down by concern about corporate earnings and rising inflation. Shanghai stocks Monday (6/16) ended higher for the first time in nine sessions and Hong Kong shares snapped a four-session losing streak. Shanghai Composite ended 0.2% higher at 2,874.10, after plumbing a 15-month low of 2,811.72 earlier in the session, during which it flip-flopped a few times between positive and negative zones. The benchmark index has lost nearly 46% so far in 2008, including more than 16% in June alone, as investors dumped shares amid concerns about inflation and large share issues by listed companies. Shanghai Composite Index (6/13) ended down 3% at 2868.80, its lowest level since March 6, 2007, after touching an intraday low of 2865.50. The index has fallen more than 17% since June 2, the day before the latest selloffs began. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 4% to 855.80. Shanghai Low 6/13 SB121330319171469137
Shanghai Composite finished 2.2% lower to 2,957.53, dropping below the psychologically-important 3,000-point level for the first time in more than a year. At its latest level, the index has lost nearly 44% of its value in 2008 so far, and more than half its value from its record high of 6,092.06 in October. The drop (6/12), adding to six sessions of decline that have brought the index down by about 15%, comes amid rising concern about the impact of inflation on corporate profits and economic health. That has spread to other markets, where companies set to profit from China's economic growth fared poorly Thursday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 0.2% to close at 23327.60, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.1% (6/11). Concerns over Beijing's tight monetary policies ahead of economic data due out this week sent shares lower for the sixth day in a row, with the benchmark index ending at a near 15-month low. Shanghai's Composite Index plunged 7.7% to 3,072.33, its lowest closing level since March 22. Tuesday's trading (6/10) was the first since the People's Bank of China announced it would lift the ratio of reserves banks must set aside as deposits by one percentage point. The adjustment comes ahead of consumer price index data for May due out Thursday. The benchmark index for the Shenzhen stock market was down 8% at 928.20. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index slipped 4.2% at 23,375.52 and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index gave up 5.4% to 12,789.87.
Markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen ended sharply lower, extending declines that saw the Shanghai benchmark record its biggest quarterly loss in more than 15 years at Monday's close. Tuesday's slides (4/01) came after comments by the People's Bank of China indicating a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. China's Shanghai Composite Index retreated 4.1%, shedding 144 points to 3,329.16, its lowest level in 11 months. The Shenzhen Composite Index plunged 7.3%, or 80 points to 1,018.03. The Shanghai benchmark fell 3% Monday, capping a 34% decline for the quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance since 1992. Shanghai Composite took the biggest hit (3/27), slumping 5.4% to 3,411.49, a level it hasn't seen since April 9, 2007. The Shanghai index, which nearly doubled in 2007, has lost more than 35% to date in 2008, ranking as one of the worst performers among Asian benchmarks. Shanghai Composite suffered another big loss in late-afternoon selling (3/24), ending 4.5% lower at 3,626.19, as fears of weaker-than-expected January-March quarter struck in the wake of series of negative factors during the period. The quarter was marked by brutal weather conditions in several parts of the country, soaring consumer prices and a steep decline in markets that is expected to hurt corporate investment income. In highly volatile trading in China, the benchmark Shanghai Composite tumbled as much as 6.5% at one point during the session, before recovering 3/20. It was recently down 3.1% at 3,644.86. In Shenzhen, the Shenzhen Composite slid 1.5% to 1,103.65. Worries about continued monetary tightening by the Chinese central bank also weighed on market sentiment. The fear remained despite the People Bank of China's decision on Tuesday to raise banks' credit requirement by a half-point to a record 15.5% amid soaring consumer prices. Asian markets ended mixed after a volatile session on Tuesday (3/18), with Shanghai-listed stocks extending losses into a fifth day on worries that the central bank will continue to tighten monetary policy. Shanghai Composite Index ended down 4% at 3668.90, its lowest level since July 5. At Tuesday's close, the Shanghai Composite, which nearly doubled in 2007, has declined 30% to date in 2008. The Shenzhen Composite, which soared more than 160% in 2007, has lost more than a quarter of its value. Speaking at a news conference at the end of the NPC, China's legislature, which meets annually, Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated that fighting inflation was a top priority for Beijing. He also said China wouldn't revalue the yuan to ease inflationary pressures. Several Asian indexes tumbled 3% or more Monday (3/17) on worries about global credit markets and a weakening U.S. dollar after J.P. Morgan Chase agreed to buy Bear Stearns Cos. for USD2 a share and the Federal Reserve cut the discount rate by a quarter percentage point. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index skidded 5.2% to 21,084.61, ending below the 22,000-point level for the first time since Jan. 22. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 7.2% to 11,037.09. China's Shanghai Composite declined 3.6% to 3,820.05, taking its losses into the fourth straight session, Taiwan's Weighted index dropped 1.9% to 8,005.46 and Singapore's Straits Times index lost 1.6% at 2,792.75.
Shanghai Composite Index fell for the third straight day (3/14) on lingering concerns about further tightening in China. The index ended down 0.2% at 3962.67, its lowest level since July. Asian shares tumbled Thursday (3/13), as U.S. economic woes and more downbeat news about a high-profile fund weighed on investor sentiment. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index fell 4.8% to 22301.64, up slightly from a low of 22251.24 just minutes before the session ended. Since the start of this year, the index has lost 20% of its value. The exchange tracked sharp declines in China's mainland stock markets, which were dragged down by expectations of new restrictive monetary policies in the face of high inflation and a weakening in profitability among Chinese companies this year. The Shanghai Composite Index narrowed its losses, however, to end down 2.4% at 3971.26, its lowest level since July 19. 基金凱雷資本因無力繳交孖展保證金，被債權銀行接管資產，投資者擔心次按導致的信貸緊縮再擴大。港股下挫超過一千一百點失守22500點，回落至一個幾月低位。恆生指數收市報22301點，跌1121點，跌幅近百分之五，為區內跌勢最急的市場。Shanghai listed stocks fell sharply (3/13), with the benchmark index dropping below the psychologically important 4,000-point level for the first time since July. The benchmark index, one of Asia's best performers in 2007, had dropped more than 22% for the year at the end of Thursday's session.
![[An investor looks at the stock-price monitor at a private-security company in Shanghai Tuesday, as Chinese stocks plunged.]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-BP214_astox0_20080610054158.jpg)
China needs to boost investment by private equity firms in both local and overseas institutions as part of an effort to help reduce the excessive domestic liquidity, a senior lawmaker said over the weekend. Unlike sovereign wealth funds, private equity funds are facing fewer political concerns while they invest overseas, Cheng Siwei, a vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress said Saturday (1/19) at a forum in Beijing. Meanwhile, Cheng said Beijing is expected to launch the Growth Enterprise Market targeting small- and medium-sized startup companies after the annual NPC meeting concludes in March. China has completed preparations for the stock index futures and will likely also launch them after the top legislative meeting, Cheng said. Cheng is well-known for being talkative about China's macroeconomic policies, but the legislature has been mostly a rubber-stamp entity rather than a real decision-making body. Starting March 5, the NPC's thousands of delegates from each province of the country will gather in Beijing to deliberate on China's fiscal, monetary, and political plans for 2008.
China's securities regulator said late Thursday (1/17) it plans to launch the long-awaited Growth Enterprise Board, a Nasdaq-style market to promote listings for startup companies. China's securities regulator will push for the introduction of index futures this year, CSRC Chairman Shang Fulin said in a statement on the central government's Web site. Shang also said China will launch a Growth Enterprise Market, intended to promote listings for startup companies, in the first half of the year. The launch of the index futures has been widely expected, but it is the first time a Chinese official has given a timetable for the launch of the Growth Enterprise Market. China is also studying allowing foreign companies to list shares on the domestic A-share market, Shang said.
China is moving fast to create a small-cap stock market intended to encourage listsings for smaller, fast-growing companies. The country will also accelerate development of a bond market to give companies non-equity-related fund-raising tools, said Shang Fulin, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission. Shang was speaking Tuesday (12/25) at a financial forum in Beijing. China began mulling a small-cap - or growth enterprise market - in 1999. However, the bursting of the dotcom bubble in 2000 delayed the plan. Earlier this month, Shang said the securities regulator was preparing share-issuance and listing rules - and working on the technical aspects - for the launch of a small-cap market. Tuesday's comments underscored the regulator's intention to get this done quickly. Shang also forecast more corporate bond issuance. However, apparently referring to the U.S. mortgage and credit crisis, he added that China has to monitor the interaction between international and domestic financial markets and prevent risk from spreading.
U.S. Fears Hammer Asia: Fears of a U.S. recession dealt Asian stocks a heavy blow (1/21), with markets in Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China plunging more than 5% while India dived 7.4%. 1/22 SB120087864488004105 To escape woes in the U.S., investors have piled into shares in fast-growing economies like China, India and Brazil. Now it looks like these markets might not offer a hoped-for refuge. 1/17 SB120053579654996387 Asian markets ended lower, amid rising fears that Wall Street and the wider U.S. economy are running into serious trouble. 1/17 SB120045352678493567
Global Gains Continue -- but for How Long? 1/02 SB119923178156160897
Asia Markets Outdo U.S. SB119921263163360455
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人民幣連日創新高
![[In the Market]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/SJ-AC937_02CAL_20080229170838.gif) Yuan Leaves Dollar in Dust 3/28 SB120665140071869585
Dollar's Dive Deepens as Oil Soars 2/29 SB120423483765800801
今早(2/20)開市中間價7.1452兌一美元，人民幣匯價較改革匯率機制前累積升值一成三。(1/03)突破7.28。人民幣自零五年七月改革匯率機制後升值步伐逐漸加快，單計去年升值近百分之七，而與改革機制前相比累積升值一成一。
Yuan appreciation was already a stated tool-of-choice among People's Bank of China policymakers. Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the central bank, has said repeatedly in recent months that the yuan exchange rate will gradually reach a "balanced" level and will help bring equilibrium to the country's balance of international payments. In 2007, the PBoC hiked interest rates half a dozen times and also increased banks' reserve requirement ratios 10 times, followed by another reserve requirement hike last month (Jan. 2008). China ended its currency's peg to the dollar in July 2005, and it now allows it to trade in a band of 0.5% on either side of its parity rate in its tightly controlled foreign exchange market. For years, Chinese officials shrugged off calls from other nations -- as well as organizations including the Group of Seven and the International Monetary Fund -- to allow the yuan to appreciate at a faster pace. The yuan's relative weakness against other currencies gives Chinese exports a competitive edge in overseas markets. China was not simply stalling to reap the benefits of a weaker currency, but rather to give its economy and financial systems time to get ready for it. Moreover, a weak currency has serious downside risks as well, and these have been increasing in line with inflation and lower interest rates overseas. "For some time it has been evident that massive external surpluses and concurrent official intervention to protect the crawling yuan peg to the dollar would create dangerous asymmetries," analysts at Business Monitor International said. In order to maintain the yuan's trading band, China has to intervene in foreign exchange markets. It then sterilizes its intervention, which means it sops up an equal amount of liquidity in the market to make up for the heavy foreign exchange purchases used to keep a lid on its currency. Until recently, the People's Bank of China had been positioning its monetary policy to maintain a negative spread of 200 to 300 basis points for its one-year treasury bill against the one-year U.S. dollar London Interbank Offered Rate, the BMI analysts said. But with Chinese inflation soaring, yields on Chinese central bank bills have climbed. As the U.S. Federal Reserve eased rates to stave off a U.S. recession, the spread is widening. That means the Chinese central bank will keep losing money when it sterilizes the capital inflows. "This creates a vicious cycle as sterilization efforts will need to be stepped up as speculative money floods into China," according to the BMI analysts.
YUAN MOVE: Thanks to a surge in recent weeks, China's yuan is set to end 2007 up nearly 7% against the dollar -- twice the amount it appreciated against the U.S. currency in 2006 -- and economists forecast a similar pace of upward movement in 2008. That could help cool down the red-hot growth in the world's third-largest economy. SB119905121592858251
Can the Dollar Get It Together? SB119936944809564859
Rocketing food prices are causing concern among China's leadership, as they try to control inflation without repeating past mistakes. Official statistics show that overall inflation in China is running at a 10-year high - around 6.9 percent in November year-on-year. Inflation is now being driven almost exclusively by increases in the price of food, in particular the staple meat, pork, which has spiked 60 percent year-on-year. Prices have faced even greater upward pressure in recent weeks, with severe weather crippling the country's transport system. Analysts say authorities in Beijing are becoming increasingly concerned about the prospect of food prices getting out of hand, but add that the problem is not yet approaching the levels that led to widespread popular dissatisfaction almost a decade ago.
China's stunning economic growth created 12 million new jobs in 2007 - more than the population of Greece and easily exceeding a government target. By comparison, just 1.3 million jobs were created in the United States, the world's largest economy. China state press says the increase helped shave urban unemployment to four percent, down 0.1 of a percentage point.
世界銀行行長佐利克(2/05)正式任命內地經濟學家林毅夫出任世行副行長兼首席經濟學家成為首位出任這項要職的發展中國家學者；國際輿論認為這項任命可加強世行與中國的聯繫並提高發展中國家地位。北京大學中國經濟研究中心主任林毅夫56歲，原名林正誼生於台灣，其後從軍，七九年派駐金門服役時，游水偷渡到大陸。八二年在北大經濟系畢業，八六年在芝加哥大學取得經濟學博士，八七年返國，九四年創立北大中國經濟研究中心，擔任主任至今。
World Bank Taps China 1/21 SB120076362924303015
World Bank's Anticorruption Chief Resigns 1/18 SB120054655787497287
World Economy Threatens China Growth 1/12 SB120003317754883551
China leadership names Mu Hong to planning post 1/11 SB119999186410481547
China taps Wang for SAFE post 1/09 SB119983123699575757
China's Food-Price Curbs Signal Increased Inflation Worry 1/17 SB120052479425595611 SB120049388326894629
發改委價格司解釋，啟動臨時價格干預措施，是由於現時價格上漲幅度較大，不規範行為，包括哄抬物價、擾亂市場等行為增加，加劇緊張心理，所以需要規範。強調措施不會影響市場機制發揮，干預的商品只是極少數，達到一定規模的企業先納入規限範圍，中小企或個體戶的價格變動不受影響。發改委指令，六種食品及商品，包括成品糧、豬牛羊肉、牛奶、雞蛋、食用植物油及液化石油氣，必須進行提價申報及備案，主管部門如反對，可責成企業恢復原價或降低加幅，違反的會受到處罰。
China releases data (1/11) on its foreign-exchange reserves: USD1.528 trillion at the end of last year, the world's largest, up from USD1.43 trillion at the end of September. China's forex reserves grew USD461.9 billion last year, exceeding growth in 2006 by USD214.4 billion, the People's Bank of China said in a statement. The increase in December was USD31.3 billion.
China has become a land of multimillion-dollar apartments and soaring property values. Despite the government's efforts to control foreign investment in hopes of reining in housing costs, Americans and others keep buying. 1/18 SB120061688989099229 Signs of a softening real-estate market in southern China's two largest cities suggest that government measures to temper investors' eagerness for property ownership could be working. 1/18 SB120059328494398117
內地去年下半年推出多項調控樓市及土地供應措施，全國七十個大中城市樓價升幅有收窄跡象，去年十二月的按月升幅減至百分之零點二,但仍較一年前高百分之十點五，升幅與去年十一月相若。在各城市中，烏魯木齊升兩成半，北海、惠州、北京、南寧及寧波都升逾一成七，而年底仍有較高升幅的城市有海口、合肥及九江。但上海及廣州的房屋銷售價指數升幅低於全國水平。內地有評論指，樓市供求仍不平衡，可能繼續上漲，調控措施成效仍有待觀察。
China has launched (1/07) a nationwide probe into foreign investment in the real estate market. State media reports the State Administration for Industry and Commerce has ordered branches across the country to carry out the probes. Foreign investment in China's real estate market surged in 2007, despite a series of measures introduced in 2006 tightening approvals and stepping up supervision of direct foreign participation in the industry. New tightening measures are highly likely to be introduced this year if the probes prove existing limits were ineffective. Latest official figures showed that the total value of foreign investment in the market soared by 71.9 per cent in the first 11 months of 2007 to $US7.4 billion, stoking fears about an emerging bubble. China Moves to Discourage Developers' Land Hoarding 1/09 SB119980933576275053
America's Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the central banks of Canada and Switzerland launched a co-ordinated effort to bolster liquidity. After several months of turmoil, financial institutions are still reeling from the squeeze in money markets and access to credit has tightened. The Fed and its partners are introducing loans to depository institutions for a temporary period to ease their funding pressures.
The US administration has urged lawmakers to be careful about taking steps to curb investment in the US economy by government-run sovereign wealth funds such as that run by China. Sovereign wealth funds have come under tight scrutiny in recent months as they use excess foreign exchange reserves to buy stakes in financial institutions, especially in the United States. The China Investment Corporation Ltd. (CIC), launched as a sovereign wealth fund in September with USD200 billion capital, wants to boost investment returns on China's massive foreign reserves and manage reform of domestic financial institutions. Several US lawmakers have expressed concern over China's financial maneuvers, saying it could pose a threat to American economic security.
China's sovereign-wealth fund made a USD20 billion capital injection into state-owned China Development Bank ahead of its probable public offering. 3/11 Shanghai Composite Index ended up 0.5% at 4165.88. The index fell as low as 4063.47 in morning trade after the disclosure of China's February consumer price index, which rose 8.7%, the fastest rise since May 1996, before it recovered the losses. China's Inflation Rate Hits 8.7% 3/12 SB120525976644727735 Perceptions Test China's Ability to Quell Inflation 3/11 SB120517223002024761
2/25 Shanghai Composite shed 4.1% to 4,398.81. Asian markets were mixed Wednesday (2/13), with Hong Kong stocks taking a rally into the second session on PetroChina Co. and financials, while Shanghai stocks declined sharply (Shanghai Composite dropped 2.4% to end at 4,490.72) as trading resumed after a week of Lunar New Year holidays, catching up with the region's losses during that period. Shanghai Composite (2/01) dropped as low as 4,195.75 during the session - a level it hasn't seen since July - as sentiment remained weak in the wake of a brutal winter that has disrupted power supply and transportation services in the country's south and central regions, affecting tens of millions of people. The index finally ended 1.4% down at 4,320.77. Shanghai Composite rose as high as 4,487.32, but couldn't sustain the gains as investor sentiment remained weak in the wake of brutal weather conditions in south and central China, which has affected tens of millions of people in the country. The index finally ended 0.8% lower at 4,383.39 (1/31). Shanghai Composite slumped 7.2% to 4,419.29, its lowest closing level (1/28) since August, to lead the region's decline. A fall of about 7% in Shanghai pushed the Shanghai Composite Index firmly into bear-market territory, with a loss of 27% from its peak in October as Chinese winter storms threaten to worsen national energy shortages and accelerate already-high inflation.
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Turning Defensive in China Some See Tumult Ahead, Adopt 'Short' Strategies 1/28 SB120147570624220753
![[stat]](http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/SJ-AC890A_10STA_20080208151612.gif) In China Game, It's Beijing's Move 1/08 SB119973261720972671
Slower Gains May Cool China Stocks
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Seven Strategies for a Tumbling Market 12/27 SB120138499103819861
The Shanghai Composite, one of the best performing indexes in the year 2007, takes a sharp tumble following a record high of 6092.06. The country's benchmark index peaked with a year-to-date gain of 128% by mid-October before retrenching afterward to finish up 97% for the year. The index gained 130% in 2006. In the process, tens of thousands of Chinese joined the investor class, cracking open the country's USD2.2 trillion piggy bank of personal savings to chase the wave of Chinese companies making their debuts on the domestic market.
London Stock Exchange Group PLC will open an office in Beijing tomorrow (1/18) in the hope of attracting more listings from Chinese companies. 1/17 SB120054524759297189
Sovereign-wealth funds have risen to prominence during the credit crunch in 2007. After reporting its first ever quarterly loss and an additional USD5.7 billion write-down related to subprime mortgages, Morgan Stanley recently said it would sell a 9.9% stake to China's fund. Merrill Lynch has announced that it will raise USD6.2 billion by selling shares to Singapore's Temasek Holdings. Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are in talks to get additional capital infusions from investors, primarily foreign governments. Merrill is expected to get billion to billion, while Citi could get as much as billion. 1/10 SB119993470776680093 Saudi billionaire Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is one of a number of investors likely to acquire stakes in Citigroup. 1/12 SB120009118772584777 Citigroup Inc.'s plans to raise capital by selling a stake of about USD2 billion to China Development Bank could be in jeopardy because of opposition from China's government. 1/14 SB120030610310488191
China aims to play a stabilization role in global markets through its USD200-billion sovereign wealth fund, the China Investment Corporation (CIC) chairman Lou Jiwei says. 中國投資有限公司09/29成立，註冊資本金為兩千億美元，由樓繼偉出任董事長，高西慶任總經理，胡懷邦做監事長。中國投資有限公司是依據《公司法》設立的國有獨資公司，目前從事的外匯投資業務以境外金融組合產品為主。
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